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New UCLA study finds 96% Growth in Latino Vote across 8 States

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The Policy & Politics Initiative (LPPI) released a new study documenting growth in the vote

… from 2014 to 2018 and found Latino concentrated areas had the largest growth in voter turnout of anywhere in the country.

The research project downloaded and analyzed official election results for more than 20,000 precincts across eight states and compared 2014 ballots cast to 2018 ballots cast.  Overall, the study concludes that the Latino vote increased by 96% in four years compared to a 37% increase in the non-Latino vote.  The study was directed by UCLA Professor Matt A. Barreto and LPPI Executive Director Sonja Diaz, and implemented by a team of Ph.D. students with expertise in race, ethnicity and politics (REP) at UCLA.

After the 2018 election, there was considerable speculation about degree of growth in the Latino vote. This report relies on a social science approach to evaluate official election data to draw conclusions about turn out and vote growth. In particular, the report examines how much of an increase was recorded, and where, and how this impacted Democratic gains in the U.S. House.

The UCLA LPPI team of researchers downloaded more than 20,000 individual precincts across eight states with large Latino populations in the states of Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.



These 8 states were critical because heading into Election Day, they contained 30 House seats that were rated as “toss-up” or “lean” by . Across these 8 states, 20 districts flipped from Republican to Democrat, including: CA (7); NJ (4); NY (3); TX (2); FL (2) AZ (1); NM (1).

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